Against the backdrop of an impairment of the Porsche AG goodwill, a challenging market environment, especially in China, and additional restructuring expenses, Volkswagen AG is updating its forecast for fiscal year 2026 as follows:
The company now expects Group Sales Revenue of around 315 billion euros, broadly equivalent to the midpoint of the previous forecast range of a development of -3 to 0 percent (2025: 321.9 billion euros).
The company now expects to achieve an Operating Return on Sales of up to 1 percent (2025: 2.8 percent; previous forecast 4.0 to 5.5 percent; average analyst expectation: 4.1 percent).
Special effects totaling around 10 billion euros are expected weigh on operating profit in the financial year, of which 0.9 billion euros were already reported in the first half of 2026. Adjusted for the special effects, the operating return on sales for the full year 2026 would amount to about 4 percent.
Volkswagen AG continues to expect Net Cash Flow in the Automotive Division to be in the range of EUR 3 billion to EUR 6 billion. Net Liquidity in the Automotive Division is still expected to be in the range of EUR 32 billion to EUR 34 billion in 2026.
The adjustment of the forecasts for consolidated sales and operating return on sales is mainly due to the following factors:
The development of operating earnings will be impacted by a further deterioration in the market environment, especially in China, as well as an accelerated shift in demand in favor of battery-electric vehicles. This will lead to developments falling short of original expectations, especially for the Audi and Volkswagen Passenger Cars brands.
In addition, the following one-off effects in particular will have a negative impact on earnings in the second half of the year.
In connection with its updated long-term planning, Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG has informed Volkswagen AG about the expected development of its key financial data. As a result, Volkswagen has updated the medium- and long-term assumptions for determining the enterprise value, including the medium-term corridor of 10 to 15 percent communicated by Porsche. The impairment test results in a non-cash impairment of around 6 billion euros for Volkswagen AG on goodwill allocated to the Porsche business segment, which will have a negative impact on the Volkswagen Group's operating profit in the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
In addition, Volkswagen AG expects additional restructuring expenses from the expansion of early retirement schemes and the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück GmbH in connection with the "Future of Volkswagen" agreement reached at the end of 2024. In addition, the development in the Chinese automotive market will lead to non-cash impairments of assets of fully consolidated companies in China in addition to the operating effects. In total, the three effects are expected to have a negative impact of around 2 billion euros in the second half of the year.
The majority of the additional special items are expected to be recognized in the profit and loss accounts in the third quarter.
The Group Board of Management and the Supervisory Board will decide on the proposal of the dividend for the 2026 financial year to be paid out in June 2027 to the Annual General Meeting at the beginning of 2027.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the current tariff situation in international trade will persist. Potential future effects of the escalation in the Middle East can still not be reliably estimated, which is why they are not included in the projections. The forecast is based on the Volkswagen Group’s current structures and does not factor in possible impacts from the implementation of the 2030 Group Target Picture or from the disposal of the majority shareholding in Everllence.
The report on the interim financial statements as of 30 September 2026 will be published on 29 October 2026. Definitions of operating profit, operating return on sales, net cash flow and net liquidity can be found in the Annual Report 2025 on pages 78f.